Belt And Road Weekly Investor Intelligence #77

We begin this week’s issue with three bright spots; China’s domestic market growth drivers, how Vietnam will benefit from RCEP, and new, US$50 billion emerging markets trust from the IMF.

Then we take strategic observations about the trade implications created by the Ukraine conflict. 2022 is turning out to be a difficult year and it pays to keep ahead of the curve in understanding what is really going on within Asian supply chains.

China’s “National Unified Market” – Standardizing the Domestic Market to Spur Internal Circulation    

government describes how China will build a “national unified market” across a wide range of sectors and fields. The national unified market will seek to break down local protectionism and market segmentation by implementing national standards and regulations.

Vietnam’s Economy to Benefit Most from RCEP: World Bank    

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement officially took effect on January 1, 2022. The countries that belong to RCEP account for almost one-third of world GDP and world population, and one-quarter of world exports and imports. If implemented successfully, it can have a considerable impact on Vietnam.

IMF Launches Belt & Road Imitating Resilience and Sustainability Trust 

The RST mirrors much of China’s Belt and Road Initiative policy, and adds to the US ‘Build Back Better World’ and EU’s ‘Global Gateway’ funds – now of course limited in scope due to the huge amount of sanctions both have put into position on Russia and Belarus – sanctions that have a knock-on effect on emerging nations dependent on them. We examine key design features of the Trust and its potential users.

Russia’s China Trade Up 28.7% In Q1 2022 

Overall, China trade sources predict that China-Russia trade will maintain growth this year and reach in excess of RMB 1 trillion (US$157 billion). China-Russia trade stood at US$147 billion, a record high, in 2021. Because of the high base achieved in 2021, it is that 2022 bilateral trade growth will be lower, but this will not be significant as the countries’ products fit each other’s needs.

Fitch Ratings Opinions On GDP 2022 Commonwealth Of Independent States Growth  

Fitch Ratings have released new figures for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) trading nations amid the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The CIS includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

Russia’s Pivot to China – Geopolitics, Trade, and Development in the Wake of the Ukraine Conflict  

China’s relations with Russia have changed in recent weeks due to the conflict in Ukraine. But much of what has occurred has also been the result of apparent planning between the two countries. There are strong trade, geopolitical and supply chain ties between Beijing and Moscow, with both tied together by energy demands and a deep mistrust of Washington.

Russia’s Supply Chain Land Borders With The EU – Compared With Russia’s Supply Chain Borders With Asia  

Russia’s Non-EU Borders Are 4.5 Times Longer, And With Moscow – Friendly Nations as the Russian Belt and Road heads to Asia.

Russia’s European Goodbye  

The Ukraine conflict in terms of its unexpected suddenness and violence was not generally anticipated at the beginning of the year. What many hoped for was a gradual recovery from Covid and the beginning so of a resurgence to economic growth and stability. Right now, 2022 is shaping up to be even worse than the two 2020/21 pandemic years. Hard questions as to what will happen next need to be asked, and we deal with them in this article.

China’s Belt And Road & Beyond  

All the very latest news from the global Belt & Road Initiative

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