Is Your China Manufacturing Business Ready for Next Year’s Flood of Cheaper Vietnamese Products?

October 21, 2014 Posted by China Briefing Reading Time: 4 minutes

CDE Op-Ed Commentary

Has your business factored in the implications of the China-ASEAN Free Trade and China-Vietnam Double Tax Agreements?

Next year will be an important one for manufacturing businesses in China. Fast approaching is something called the “ASEAN Economic Community” (AEC) 2015 deadline, which entails Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam all coming into line with the ASEAN community on tariff reductions. Of these, Vietnam is the big player, with a well-developed border with China, ports up and down its east coast and very close proximity to South China. Vietnam’s AEC compliance means that, under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement with China, 90 percent of all Vietnamese manufactured products will be permitted to enter the China market duty-free.

With even Xinhua on the ball with what is about to happen, your business had better be as well. Vietnam’s lower operating costs – in terms of both land-use rights and worker salaries – mean that inevitably, production of low and medium tech products will leech away from China into ASEAN, and Vietnam in particular. In fact the shift is already taking place – while China’s trade with the rest of the world has grown by 1.6 percent this year, bilateral trade with ASEAN grew by 6 percent.

This latter figure has grown by leaps and bounds in recent years, in line with the development of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. In 2002, when the FTA was signed, trade between the two jurisdictions was just US$55 billion. This year it is expected to reach US$420 billion, and AEC compliance is expected to push it further, up to US$500 billion in 2015.

Here is a checklist of the issues your China manufacturing base will face as a result of this:

1) Are the products you are manufacturing in China also included under the China-ASEAN FTA?

2) Have you examined the implications for your China business of the China-Vietnam Double Tax Agreement?

If not, then it would be wise to seek professional advice to examine its implications for your China manufacturing operations. This should include:

3) A briefing on the implications for your company of the China-ASEAN FTA and Vietnam-China DTA;

4) Cost analysis of manufacturing overheads as a comparison between China and Vietnam

5) Infrastructure analysis on production capabilities between China and Vietnam

Based on these, you will need to make a corporate decision on what to do next. Typically, we have found that China-based manufacturers relocate part – not usually all, although it does happen – of their production to Vietnam. Less complicated component parts can be imported from Vietnam, with total assembly using more complex China-made parts being conducted in China, then resold onto the domestic market.

The harsh reality is that the supply chain is shifting – fast – and your China manufacturing base may start to become uncompetitive as early as next year. Now is the time to be examining the possibility of this, and looking hard at the Vietnam option. Your future as a profitable business depends on it.

Chris Devonshire-Ellis is the Founding Partner of Dezan Shira & Associates – a specialist foreign direct investment practice providing corporate establishment, business advisory, tax advisory and compliance, accounting, payroll, due diligence and financial review services to multinationals investing in emerging Asia. Since its establishment in 1992, the firm has grown into one of Asia’s most versatile full-service consultancies with operational offices across China, Hong Kong, India, Singapore and Vietnam, in addition to alliances in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, as well as liaison offices in Italy, Germany and the United States. For further information, please email china@dezshira.com or visit www.dezshira.com.

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